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Thursday, 31 January 2013

Counterparties: Today's Best Links Ship lineman Jonathan Sanchez works the lines along the docks at the Port of New Orleans in New Orleans, Louisiana June 23, 2010. Picture taken June 23, 2010. REUTERS/Sean Gardner Don't worry about shrinking U.S. GDP While the U.S. economy shrank in the fourth quarter, the private sector is doing just fine, the Washington Post reports. Learn More Americans borrow for college, not for a home Could the Fed face big bond losses? Get Counterparties by email! Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Recommended Video French troops head to northern Mali (0:53) Play Video French troops head to northern Mali (0:53) Baby born with heart outside body leaves hospital (1:35) Play Video Baby born with heart outside body leaves hospital… Gabby Giffords: "Too many children are dying" (1:22) Play Video Gabby Giffords: "Too many children are dying" (1:22) Crown prince to Saudis: I’m one of you Crown prince to Saudis: I’m one of you (Onward Voice) AFP chief stands by soldiers in Quezon shooting incident AFP chief stands by soldiers in Quezon shooting… (Inquirer.net) French troops head to northern Mali (0:53) Play Video Baby born with heart outside body leaves hospital (1:35) Play Video Gabby Giffords: "Too many children are dying" (1:22) Play Video Crown prince to Saudis: I’m one of you AFP chief stands by soldiers in Quezon shooting incident [?] Key Rates Mortgage Home Equity Savings Auto Credit Cards See today's average mortgage rates across the country. Type Today 1 mo 30-Year Fixed 3.61% 3.45% 15-Year Fixed 2.93% 2.82% 10-Year Fixed 3.04% 2.98% 5/1-Year ARM 2.83% 2.86% 30-Year Fixed Refi 3.57% 3.52% 15-Year Fixed Refi 2.91% 2.90% 5/1 ARM Refi 2.76% 2.98% 30-Year Fixed Jumbo 4.15% 4.06% Rates may include points. Source: Bankrate.com See More Key Rate Data Read Hostage drama drags on after Alabama school bus shooting | Video 30 Jan 2013 Exclusive: Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions 3:04am EST Yoga may aid people with irregular heart rhythm 30 Jan 2013 Exclusive: Citigroup may exit consumer banking in more countries 3:04am EST Israel hits Syria arms convoy to Lebanon: sources | Video 30 Jan 2013 Discussed 131 Amid questions, Senate begins hearings on gun control 112 Bipartisan Senate group proposes immigration plan 46 Court says Obama recess appointments ”invalid” Pictures Free Syrian Army fighters pull a comrade (3rd L) who was shot by sniper fire during heavy fighting in the Ain Tarma neighbourhood of Damascus January 30, 2013. REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic Reuters Photojournalism Our day's top images, in-depth photo essays and offbeat slices of life. See the best of Reuters photography. See more | Photo caption Photo Blood feud Life for an Albanian family forced to never leave their house because of a blood feud. Slideshow Photo Sandy's aftermath A long-delayed aid package for victims of Superstorm Sandy clears the Senate. Slideshow Sponsored Links Image Ad News- Wind Energy Tech Slashes Cost Mass Megawatts Wind Power( stock ticker MMMW ) introduces low cost power units. Ads by Marchex Employment ducks Superstorm Sandy's punch

(Reuters) - Companies kept up their slow but steady hiring pace in November, defying predictions that Superstorm Sandy would deal a big blow to the labor market.
While the unemployment rate fell to a near four-year low of 7.7 percent, that was only because many Americans gave up the hunt for work, tempering the signal from the stronger-than-expected payrolls growth.
A big drop in consumer confidence in December, the largest fall in more than 1-1/2 years, also offered a cautionary note on the economy's health.
Non-farm employment expanded by 146,000 jobs last month after gaining 138,000 in October, the Labor Department said on Friday. The increase was well above the 93,000 expected on Wall Street.
"We are moving in a trend-like modest job-growth environment," said Michael Hanson, a senior economist at Bank of Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. "We really need to see payroll numbers break above 200,000 for a while to think we have a more sustained recovery under way."
The government said Sandy, which slammed the densely populated East Coast in late October, did not have a substantive impact on the data. Economists had thought it would, with some predicting it would cut up to 75,000 jobs off payrolls growth.
Nevertheless, the storm did hit the economy hard.
Sandy knocked retail sales and industrial output in October and led to a big spike in claims for jobless benefits, one of the reasons economists expected job growth to slow.
A Labor Department survey of households found 369,000 workers were unable to make it to work in the aftermath of the storm and a further 1.1 million ended up working only part time. However, the department still considered them employed.
The stronger-than-expected payrolls number helped to push down prices for U.S. Treasuries, but lifted the dollar against a basket of currencies. The Dow Jones industrial average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended Friday's session moderately higher, but a steep drop in Apple's stock once again forced the Nasdaq Composite Index to end the day in negative territory.
MODEST TREND
November's job gains left them just below the monthly average of 151,000 that has prevailed since January.
Economists consider that pace just enough to push the jobless rate lower over time. But they say roughly 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month would be needed to make noticeable headway in absorbing the 22.7 million Americans who are either jobless or underemployed.
The 0.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate, which took it to its lowest level since December 2008, was due to a decrease in the size of the labor force, a suggestion that frustrated Americans were giving up the hunt for work.
The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell back to near a 31-year low.
Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, said it could take more than 10 years for the unemployment rate to drop back to its pre-recession level of around 5 percent at the current pace of job growth.
Last month, the retail sector accounted for more than a third of jobs gains, which economists tied to a brisk start to the holiday shopping season. Still, private hiring slowed to 147,000 from 189,000 in October, pulled down by a sharp decline in construction employment and weak manufacturing payrolls.
FISCAL CLIFF WORRIES
Employment continues to be held back by fears the government may fail to prevent the $600 billion in automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts set to take hold at the start of next year. The debt crisis in Europe has also weighed.
Worries about this so-called fiscal cliff hit consumer sentiment in early December. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary confidence index plummeted 8.2 points to 74.5. It was the largest drop since March 2011.
"That confirms my belief that the only thing the economy has to fear is Washington itself," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.
"There is some real underlying strength in the economy as the November jobs numbers indicate, but it could be wiped out by the games being played by our political representatives."
With the labor market far from full health, Federal Reserve policymakers, who meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, look certain to keep U.S. monetary policy on its current ultra-easy course.
Economists said an anticipated tightening of fiscal policy next year, even if a deal is reached to avoid completely going over the fiscal cliff, provides ample reason for the U.S. central bank to maintain its stance.
The retail sector added 52,600 jobs last month after rising 50,900 in October. The pace of retail hiring over the last three months was the fastest since 1995.
There were also increases in information and temporary help hiring. But transport, financial, education and health services employment slowed. Manufacturing employment fell 7,000, marking the third month it has dropped this year.
Construction payrolls surprisingly tumbled 20,000, despite a surge in homebuilding, which is benefiting from the Fed's effort to hold borrowing costs down. Economists said they expect construction jobs to rise in the coming months as the housing recovery returns full swing.
Average hourly earnings increased 4 cents. In the 12 months through November, average hourly earnings are up just 1.7 percent, underscoring the trouble that workers are having keeping up with inflation.

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